A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
